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src="http://www.ibisworld.com.au/common/newsletter/images/TOCtopleft.gif" alt="" /> </td> <td class="WhiteTop"> <img src="http://www.ibisworld.com.au/common/newsletter/images/cp.gif" alt="" height="1" width="1" /> </td> <td style="width: 5px"> <img src="http://www.ibisworld.com.au/common/newsletter/images/TOCtopright.gif" alt="" /> </td> </tr> </table> <table border="0" style="width: 354px" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"> <tr> <td class="DarkGray"> <img border="0" src="http://www.ibisworld.com.au/common/newsletter/images/cp.gif" alt="" height="1" width="1" /> </td> <td valign="top"> <table border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="0"> <tr> <td rowspan="9"> <img border="0" src="http://www.ibisworld.com.au/common/newsletter/images/cp.gif" alt="" height="183" width="1" /> </td> <td colspan="2"> <p class="heading1"> IN THIS EDITION:</p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td width="30" align="center"> <a href="#aIndustry"> <img border="0" src="http://www.ibisworld.com.au/common/newsletter/images/placeholderarrow.gif" alt="" /></a> </td> <td class="tdToc"> <a class="menuitem" href="#aIndustry">In INDUSTRY </a> </td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center"> <a href="#aFocus"> <img border="0" src="http://www.ibisworld.com.au/common/newsletter/images/placeholderarrow.gif" alt="" /> </a> </td> <td class="tdToc"> <a class="menuitem" href="#aFocus">COMPANY Connect</a> </td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center"> <a href="#aRisk"> <img border="0" src="http://www.ibisworld.com.au/common/newsletter/images/placeholderarrow.gif" alt="" /> </a> </td> <td class="tdToc"> <a class="menuitem" href="#aGlobal">Global TRENDS</a> </td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center"> <a href="#aRisk"> <img border="0" src="http://www.ibisworld.com.au/common/newsletter/images/placeholderarrow.gif" alt="" /> </a> </td> <td class="tdToc"> <a class="menuitem" href="#aRisk">Industry Risk</a> </td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center"> <a href="#aEconomic"> <img border="0" src="http://www.ibisworld.com.au/common/newsletter/images/placeholderarrow.gif" alt="" /> </a> </td> <td> <a class="menuitem" href="#aEconomic">Economics & Demographics</a> </td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center"> <a href="#aRuthven"> <img border="0" src="http://www.ibisworld.com.au/common/newsletter/images/placeholderarrow.gif" alt="" /> </a> </td> <td> <a class="menuitem" href="#aPresentation">Phil Ruthven - Presentation Material</a> </td> </tr> <!-- <tr> <td align="center"> <a href="#aNew"> <img border="0" src="http://www.ibisworld.com.au/common/newsletter/images/placeholderarrow.gif" alt="" /> </a> </td> <td> <a class="menuitem" href="#aNew">What's New?</a> </td> </tr>--> <tr> <td align="center"> <a href="#aUpdated"> <img border="0" src="http://www.ibisworld.com.au/common/newsletter/images/placeholderarrow.gif" alt="" /> </a> </td> <td> <a class="menuitem" href="#aUpdated">Updated Reports</a> </td> </tr> </table> </td> <td class="DarkGray"> <img src="http://www.ibisworld.com.au/common/newsletter/images/cp.gif" alt="" height="1" width="1" /> </td> </tr> </table> <table border="0" style="width: 354px" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"> <tr> <td style="width: 5px"> <img src="http://www.ibisworld.com.au/common/newsletter/images/TOCbottomleft.gif" alt="" /> </td> <td class="WhiteBottom"> <img src="http://www.ibisworld.com.au/common/newsletter/images/cp.gif" alt="" height="1" width="1" /> </td> <td style="width: 5px"> <img src="http://www.ibisworld.com.au/common/newsletter/images/TOCbottomright.gif" alt="" /> </td> </tr> </table> </td> </tr> </table> </td> <td valign="top"> <table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" border="0"> <tr> <td valign="top"> <img src="http://www.ibisworld.com.au/common/newsletter/images/audate.gif" alt="" /> </td> </tr> <tr> <td height="10" /> </tr> <tr> <td> <table border="0" style="width: 256px" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"> <tr> <td style="width: 5px"> <img src="http://www.ibisworld.com.au/common/newsletter/images/PinkTOCtopleft.gif" alt="" /> </td> <td class="WhiteTop" style="background-color: #DDCDC6;"> <img src="http://www.ibisworld.com.au/common/newsletter/images/cp.gif" alt="" height="1" width="1" /> </td> <td style="width: 5px"> <img src="http://www.ibisworld.com.au/common/newsletter/images/PinkTOCtopright.gif" alt="" /> </td> </tr> </table> <table border="0" style="background-color: #DDCDC6; width: 256px" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"> <tr> <td class="DarkGray"> <img src="http://www.ibisworld.com.au/common/newsletter/images/cp.gif" alt="" height="148" width="1" /> </td> <td height="161" width="308"> <p class="heading1" style="text-align: center;"> DID YOU KNOW?</p> <p class="textCenter"> The US consumes a quarter of the world's oil. However, if China, the world's second largest consumer, continues on its current growth trajectory, it will overtake the US by 2020, and double US consumption by 2030. </p> </td> <td class="DarkGray"> <img src="http://www.ibisworld.com.au/common/newsletter/images/cp.gif" alt="" height="1" width="1" /> </td> </tr> </table> <table border="0" style="width: 256px" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"> <tr> <td style="width: 5px"> <img src="http://www.ibisworld.com.au/common/newsletter/images/PinkTOCbottomleft.gif" alt="" /> </td> <td class="WhiteBottom" style="background-color: #DDCDC6;"> <img src="http://www.ibisworld.com.au/common/newsletter/images/cp.gif" alt="" height="1" width="1" /> </td> <td style="width: 5px"> <img src="http://www.ibisworld.com.au/common/newsletter/images/PinkTOCbottomright.gif" alt="" /> </td> </tr> </table> </td> </tr> </table> </td> </tr> </table> </td> </tr> </table> <!-- end header--> <table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" border="0"> <!-- main content--> <!-- industry in focus article --> <!--<tr> <td> <a id="aIndustry" name="aFeature"></a> <p class="heading2"> <br /> Easter</p> <table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"> <tr> <td valign="top" width="620" align="left"> <p>You know its Easter when the sky greys and, helped by daylight savings, darkens earlier each night. You know it's close when fluffy bunnies and bright yellow chicks start to appear in the windows of high street shops. But most of all you know its Easter when you see brightly covered chocolate eggs and animals, and smell the freshly baked hot cross buns. With Easter now behind us, it is a good time to take a look at the confectionary manufacturing industry. </p> </td> </tr> </table> </td> --> <tr> <td> <a id="a4" name="aFeature"></a> <table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"> <tr> <td> <a id="a3" name="aFeature"></a> <p class="heading2"> <br /> In INDUSTRY: Turbulent Times Ahead For Our Budget Carriers</p> <table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"> <tr> <td valign="top" width="620" align="left"> <p>Commuting for work between Sydney and Melbourne, visiting a relative in Perth, or taking a long weekend in sunny Queensland has become a lifestyle expectation for many Aussies. And, until recently, the plethora of cheap fares and fierce competition between the discount airlines have let us do just that. </p><p>However, skyrocketing oil and jet fuel prices are hitting the aviation industry hard. Both the major players raised their fares last month, and low margin routes have already been cut from flight schedules. And, with analysts forecasting oil to average $US141 a barrel in the second half of 2008, the worst may yet be to come. IBISWorld is forecasting a 40% reduction in routes and 22% increase in fares as the <a href="http://www.ibisworld.com.au/redirect.aspx?partnerid=News&indid=472">Scheduled Domestic Air Transport</a> industry attempts to stay out of the red. </p><p>And the affliction won't stop there. Job losses across not only the aviation, but the tourism sector more broadly are expected. IBISWorld expects 4,000 job losses across the domestic aviation industry, with flow on effects to the upstream <a href="http://www.ibisworld.com.au/redirect.aspx?partnerid=News&indid=258">Aircraft Manufacturing</a> and <a href="http://www.ibisworld.com.au/redirect.aspx?partnerid=News&indid=488">Services to Air Transport</a> industries, and downstream <a href="http://www.ibisworld.com.au/redirect.aspx?partnerid=News&indid=492">Freight Forwarding</a>, <a href="http://www.ibisworld.com.au/redirect.aspx?partnerid=News&indid=502">Postal Services</a>, and <a href="http://www.ibisworld.com.au/redirect.aspx?partnerid=News&indid=1903">Tourism</a> industries. </p><p>The temptation exists to characterize the current oil price surge as the shock we had to have, one that will be smoothed out as demand tapers to its natural equilibrium. But the reality exists that it will force us to adjust our lifestyle expectations. And, fortunately, the aviation industry is coming to terms with this. </p><p>Operationally, the next few months will see some changes for the budget carriers. Efficiency will increase, with more cuts to under-performing routes, and greater emphasis on achieving economies of scale through increased ASKs (available seat kilometers). Slow travel may be back on the agenda, too. In a bid to further reduce their fuel bill, Jetstar planes will begin flying 18kmh slower, a marginal difference in terms of transit time, but critical for a firm where fuel now accounts for nearly half of their running costs. </p><p>The turbulence may linger for some time, but the changes on the horizon are for the long term. The adjustments made now are for not just our industries and economy, but the sustainability of our environment and unique culture that define modern Australia. </p> </td> </tr> <!-- <tr> <td> <p class="ReportSectionTitle"> <br /> Industry reports relating to this article are:</p> <table border="0"> <tr> <td width="30" align="center"> <img src="http://www.ibisworld.com.au/common/newsletter/images/documenticon.gif" alt="" /> </td> <td> <a href="http://www.ibisworld.com.au/redirect.aspx?partnerid=News&indid=626"> Child Care Services industry</a> </td></tr> </table> </td>--> </table> </td> </tr> <!--end industry in focus article --> <tr> <!-- company focus article --> <td> <a id="aFocus" name="aFocus"></a> <p class="heading2"> <br /> COMPANY Connect: Just say no! </p> <table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"> <tr> <td valign="top" width="620"> <p>Just Group Limited (Just Group) is an Australian-based clothing retailer that owns a number of specialty fashion chains, comprising Just Jeans, Jay Jays, Peter Alexander, Portmans, Jacqui E, Dotti and Smiggle. The company has 875 stores across Australia and New Zealand. </p><p>On 31st March 2008, Solomon Lew, a billionaire Australian investor, made an off-market bid to acquire Just. This bid was made through his investment company Premier Investments (Premier), offering $2.20 in cash and 0.25 Premier shares for each Just Group share. This offer valued the company at $3.97  $4.23 per share, which stood for a market value of $828 million to $898 million based on the number of shares on issue and the share price as at 28th March 2008. </p><p>In response, directors of Just Group rejected the takeover bid. They said the offer has materially undervalued the group, citing an independent expert report by Lonergan Edwards. According to Just Group's target statement, the independent expert valued the group at $4.78  $5.28 per share, compared with Premier's offer of $3.97  $4.23 each. Premier's mid-point valuation of $4.1 represents an 18.5% or 93 cents discount to the independent expert's mid-point valuation of $5.03. </p><p>Besides low valuation, the directors stated that Premier needs Just Group, but Just Group does not need Premier. The directors believe the takeover offer is structured to suit Premier's objectives, not the interests of Just Group shareholders. They are also skeptical on the synergies created from the combined group. </p><p>The market was not surprised by Just Group's reaction because the offer was at the low end of recent Australian discretionary retail transactions and might not offer too much value to the shareholders. </p><p>Directors of Just Group strongly believe that the offer is of no benefit to shareholders and urge them to ignore Premier's offer. </p><p>Just is being advised by Caliburn Partnership, and Premier by UBS AG. </p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td> <table border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"> <tr> <td> <p class="heading2"> <a id="global" name="aGlobal"></a> <br /> GLOBAL TRENDS: Oil  The Crude Reality of Current trends </p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td valign="top" width="620"> <P>Oil prices hit $US139 a barrel last week. That's more than double what they were a year ago, and even after inflation adjustments, higher than during the supply shocks of 1974 and 1980. On a single day world oil revenue now equals the annual GDP of Nepal, Cambodia or Paraguay, is more than double that of Mozambique, and is more than 30 times bigger than the economy of Vanuatu. </p><p>Despite since contracting to $US134 a barrel earlier this week, this price volatility presents a growing concern about the erosion of global energy demand. Oil underpins not only the world economy, but life as we know it. Directly, it transports us, it warms us, and it fuels the factories that are our livelihood. Indirectly however, its effect reaches farther, with nearly every component of the modern economy having some degree of pricing exposure to oil. </p><p>As a result, it's not just the <a href="http://www.ibisworld.com.au/redirect.aspx?partnerid=news&type=global&indid=1620">Travel Arrangement and Reservation Services</a> industries feeling the punch. Industries downstream of the <a href="http://www.ibisworld.com.au/redirect.aspx?partnerid=news&type=global&indid=190">Oil and Gas Exploration and Production</a> industry, like petrochemicals and plastics that use oil derivatives in the production of fertilizers, computer parts, manufacturing car and machine parts, plumbing parts, toys and medical and surgical equipment will all feel the effects of the input price spikes. </p><p>And, despite suggestions that the broader inflationary effects will take months to flow through to prices, consumers have already begun to respond. Marginal consumption has declined. And, critically, we are changing the way we live. There's been a shift in the size of vehicles being purchased across the globe, with smaller more fuel-efficient hybrid models becoming increasingly important to the <a href="http://www.ibisworld.com.au/redirect.aspx?partnerid=news&type=global&indid=1000">Automobile and Light Duty Motor Vehicle Manufacturing</a> industry. Moreover, the car industry is facing increasing external competition from the public transport sector, as consumers re-evaluate their private vehicle usage. </p><p>So our future depends on change. Change on a level that has perhaps, and unfortunately, been avoided until the laws of demand and supply have forced us. We are going to have to live with the higher energy prices, but the challenge facing us presents an opportunity as well. Technology and innovation will play an important role in our future, as will research, development and education. So the reality is perhaps not that crude, provided we can overcome our inertia to date. </p> </td> </tr> </table> </td> </tr> </table> </tr> <!--end industry focus article --> <tr> <!-- industry risl article --> <td> <table border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"> <tr> <td> <a id="a5" name="aRisk" class=""></a> <p class="heading2"> <br /> Industry Risk: Men's Health Week </p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td valign="top" width="620"> <p>Men's Health Week 2008 is being run from 9-15 June, aiming to raise awareness of male-specific health issues and to encourage men to avoid a "go-it-alone" attitude in relation to illness. Four specific issues for the week are as follows:</p> <ul><li><strong>Mental Health</strong>  According to the organizers of Men's Health Week, one in six men will experience depression in their lives, and one in eight will experience an anxiety disorder in any given year. </li><li><strong>Prostate Health and Cancer Awareness</strong>  Every year, approximately 2700 men die as a result of prostate cancer, and around 12,000 new cases are diagnosed each year. This annual death toll is equivalent to the number of women who die from breast cancer. </li><li><strong>Testosterone Deficiency</strong>  Around one in every 200 men under the age of 60 suffer from testosterone deficiency, as well as an estimated 1 in every 10 men over 60. This treatable affliction is associated with obesity, osteoporosis and sexual dysfunction, having the potential to greatly impact a man's quality of life. </li><li><strong>Seeing a GP Once Per Year </strong></li></ul> <p>The <a href="http://www.ibisworld.com.au/redirect.aspx?partnerid=News&indid=608">Psychiatric Hospitals</a> industry, a key component of the fight against mental illness, is forecast to face a MEDIUM level of risk in the 2008-09 financial year, as resources are shifted away from stand-alone psychiatric hospitals and toward psychiatric wards in general hospitals. IBISWorld projects that the industry's revenue will increase by 2% over the year. </p><p>Risk in the <a href="http://www.ibisworld.com.au/redirect.aspx?partnerid=News&indid=611">General Practice Medical Services</a> is expected to be at a MEDIUM level over the outlook period as growth in the number of visits made to the GP by Australians is forecast to slow somewhat as some shift is made to specialist practitioners such as physiotherapists and psychologists. IBISWorld projects that this industry's revenue will expand by 2.1% in 2008-09. </p><p>Below is an outline of the historical and forecast risk score of the above mentioned industries. These can be compared to overall risk for the Australian economy. </p> <table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tbl"> <tr> <td width="" class="tbcDarkGreen"> <strong>Industry Name</strong> </td> <td width="" class="tbcLightGreen"> <strong>2005</strong> </td> <td width="" class="tbcLightGreen"> <strong>2006</strong> </td> <td width="" class="tbcLightGreen"> <strong>2007</strong> </td> <td width="" class="tbcLightGreen"> <strong>2008</strong> </td> <td width="" class="tbcLightGreen"> <strong>2009</strong> </td> </tr> <tr> <td class="tbcMidGreen-leftalign"> <strong>Psychiatric Hospitals</strong> </td> <td class="tbcWhiteLeftAlign"> 5.42 </td> <td class="tbcWhiteLeftAlign"> 5.26 </td> <td class="tbcWhiteLeftAlign"> 5.29 </td> <td class="tbcWhiteLeftAlign"> 4.67 </td> <td class="tbcWhiteLeftAlign"> 4.96 </td> </tr> <tr> <td class="tbcMidGreen-leftalign"> <strong>General Practice Medical Services</strong> </td> <td class="tbcWhiteLeftAlign"> 3.35 </td> <td class="tbcWhiteLeftAlign"> 3.94 </td> <td class="tbcWhiteLeftAlign"> 4.14 </td> <td class="tbcWhiteLeftAlign"> 4.35 </td> <td class="tbcWhiteLeftAlign"> 5.07 </td> </tr> <tr> <td class="tbcMidGreen-leftalign"> <strong>Australian Economy</strong> </td> <td class="tbcWhiteLeftAlign"> 4.75 </td> <td class="tbcWhiteLeftAlign"> 4.79 </td> <td class="tbcWhiteLeftAlign"> 4.60 </td> <td class="tbcWhiteLeftAlign"> 4.74 </td> <td class="tbcWhiteLeftAlign"> 4.79 </td> </tr> </table> </td> </tr> </table> <p class="ReportSectionTitle"> Industry reports relating to this article are:</p> <table border="0"> <tr> <td width="30" align="center"> <img src="http://www.ibisworld.com.au/common/newsletter/images/documenticon.gif" alt="" /> </td> <td><a href="http://www.ibisworld.com.au/redirect.aspx?partnerid=News&indid=608">Psychiatric Hospitals</a> </td> </tr> <tr> <td width="30" align="center"> <img src="http://www.ibisworld.com.au/common/newsletter/images/documenticon.gif" alt="" /> </td> <td> <a href="http://www.ibisworld.com.au/redirect.aspx?partnerid=News&indid=611">General Practice Medical Services</a> </td> </tr> </table> </td> </tr> </table> </tr> <!-- end industry risk article --> <!--end industry focus article --> <tr> <!-- economics article --> <td> <a id="aEconomic" name="aEconomic" class=""></a> <table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="620"> <tr> <td> <br /> <p align="left" class="heading2"> Economic Scoreboard</p> </td> </tr> </table> <table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="620"> <tr> <td colspan="3" style="padding: 3px;" align="left" width="620"> <table class="tbl"> <tr> <td class="tbcDarkGreen"> </td> <td class="tbcLightGreen-NoAlign"> <b>Date</b> </td> <td class="tbcLightGreen-NoAlign"> <b>Score</b> </td> </tr> <tr> <td class="tbcMidGreen"> <a href="http://www.ibisworld.com.au/bed/retail.aspx?bedtid=360&bedpid=2434&bedid=362&chid=1"> GDP (seas. adj.)</a> </td> <td class="tbcWhite"> Mar qtr 08(annual) </td> <td class="tbcWhite"> 3.60% </td> </tr> <tr> <td class="tbcMidGreen"> <a href="http://www.ibisworld.com.au/bed/retail.aspx?bedtid=360&bedpid=382&bedid=383&chid=1"> Consumer Price Index</a> </td> <td class="tbcWhite"> Mar qtr 08 (annual) </td> <td class="tbcWhite"> 4.2% </td> </tr> <tr> <td class="tbcMidGreen"> <a href="http://www.ibisworld.com.au/bed/retail.aspx?bedtid=451&bedpid=2766&bedid=158&chid=1"> Unemployment (seas. adj.)</a> </td> <td class="tbcWhite"> Apr 2008 </td> <td class="tbcWhite"> 4.2% </td> </tr> <tr> <td class="tbcMidGreen"> <a href="http://www.ibisworld.com.au/bed/retail.aspx?bedtid=360&bedpid=2582&bedid=2598&chid=1"> Total Dwelling Units Commenced</a> </td> <td class="tbcWhite"> Dec qtr 2007 </td> <td class="tbcWhite"> 2.6% </td> </tr> <tr> <td class="tbcMidGreen">