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In INDUSTRY: 2008 – The year ahead.
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The Australian economy has been going gangbusters for some time now, with only one year registering growth below 2% since 1993, and that was the slightly extraordinary year of 2001. So with a new year dawning, a traumatised US economy and a booming resources sector, which are the industries that IBISWorld expects to continue this trend? Here is a list of IBISWorld's movers and shakers for 2008:
Already, it is apparent that Australia's mining industries are looking at another bumper year, with no less than five of the ten growth industries being mining or mining related. Continuing demand from China, which so far has been impervious to jitters in the US economy, and growing demand from India are providing a solid base for the resource sector in general well beyond 2008. The Uranium Mining industry is expected to be the fastest growing industry by some distance, as international demand for nuclear power continues to grow, particularly in Asia.
A notable absence from this list is the Superannuation Funds industry, which, while set to grow by 8.1%, doesn't quite reach the same heights, while Superannuation Funds Management is forecast to grow by 7.1%.
Beyond that, there are a couple of surprises, particularly the presence of the Bottled Water Manufacturing industry, which is growing on the back of increasing health consciousness, planned expansion by Coca Cola Amatil and public concerns regarding the health of soft drinks. The Pay Television industry is set to continue its growth levels, as viewers continue to exercise their choice over viewing habits, shifting to pay TV and the internet, which is likely to lead to strong expansion by the Internet Service Providers industry, the only industry to show comparable increases to the mining sector.
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COMPANY Connect: Future looks rosy for AXA Asia Pacific
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AXA Asia Pacific Holdings Limited is part of the French-based financial services multinational AXA SA. It is the holding company for the AXA Asia Pacific Group's life insurance, wealth management and advice businesses in Australia, New Zealand, Hong Kong SAR, China, Singapore, Thailand, Philippines, Indonesia, India and Malaysia. The company provides financial products and services that are essential to the welfare and development of individuals, businesses and communities. AXA Asia Pacific Holdings is publicly listed on the Australian Stock Exchange under the ticker symbol AXA, and directly employs over 2,200 staff in Australia and New Zealand, and over 2,500 across Asia.
We are currently experiencing a significant demographic shift in Australia along with many other countries around the world. An Intergenerational Report released by the Government shows that in the next 40 years the number of people aged between 65-84 will approximately double and those aged 85 and over will almost quadruple. With saving ratios in Australia considerably low compared to global standards, the impact of this demographic shift will place an enormous amount of strain on both the tax and social security system.
In response to this, the Treasurer announced, in the 9 May 2006 Federal Budget, changes to improve the attractiveness of superannuation in Australia as the preferred long-term savings vehicle. These changes should improve long-term savings rates and increase industry flows into superannuation and retirement income which will underpin growth in wealth management.
Latest market research illustrates that the average Australian has only a quarter of the life insurance they need. This significant underinsurance in the Australian market presents AXA with very attractive growth prospects in financial protection.
AXA is the largest retail wealth management provider in New Zealand and is well placed to capitalise on two changes that will significantly enhance the fundamentals of wealth management. Kiwisaver, which was introduced on 1 July 2007, is expected to increase public awareness of the need to save for retirement which should boost the number of superannuation members. Furthermore, AXA has been selected as one of the Government's default providers for Kiwisaver.
The second change in New Zealand are tax reforms, introduced on 1 October 2007, that brings the taxation of managed funds closer in line with that of directly held investments, removing significant disadvantages which previously existed for managed fund providers such as AXA.
AXA's position in Asia is a key strategic differentiator, providing very attractive organic and non-organic growth opportunities in some of the world's fastest growing markets. Hong Kong presents very favourable market fundamentals, consisting of a population that is inclined to save and a life insurance market that is not saturated according to global standards. The privately funded mandatory retirement savings market is expected to more than double over the next five years and burgeoning wealth and investor sophistication will facilitate growth in financial planning and advice.
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GLOBAL TRENDS: 2008 – Big Movers on the World Stage.
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Meanwhile, as the global economy continues to power on, supported by explosive growth in China, India Russia and Brazil, many high tech industries which are growing rapidly in developed countries are not reaching the same heights globally, although there are some tech industries doing well. The big winners internationally are those that are assisting with Asian expansion, including logistics and transport industries, which dominate IBISWorld's forecast global growers for 2008:
Half of IBISWorld's top ten global growth industries are transportation or logistics oriented. Increasing international trade is directly responsible for continually increasing demand for means to transport goods, and the design and construction of better methods by which to do so.
The technology-based industries, Biotechnolog and Internet Service Providers, service expansion in healthcare and agriculture, and global finance and interconnectivity, respectively. Continued international adoption of internet technology, and expansion by companies like Google and Microsoft into burgeoning Chinese and Indian markets suggest that this growth is set to continue.
The Movie Production and Distribution industry is also booming, and is likely to do so in 2008 despite the Screen Writers' Guild going on strike in the US. The lack of material is likely to hit the US industry in 2009, as most films for 2008 are finished or already written, while the Indian 'Bollywood' scene continues to grow apace.
Finally, the presence of Insurance and Pension Provision industries in IBISWorld's global growth list is an indication of the increasing standard of living in developing countries, as large multinational financial institutions spread to Asia and Latin America as a means to grow and simultaneously mitigate repercussions of the subprime affair.
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Industry Risk: Hitting the Books – Back to School 2008
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For all states and territories except Tasmania, Western Australia and the ACT, the first school term of the year begins at the end of January. The state of Australian education has become a key community and political issue, with issues such as class sizes and alleged "dumbing down" of the curriculum igniting debate. Also of interest to the community is the question of where the balance should lie between government and private education.
Risk in the Government Schools industry is forecast to be at a MEDIUM level over the 2008-09 financial year, a similar level to that seen in the previous year. However, risk in this industry has shown an overall upward trend since 2005-06, attributable mainly to slower growth in State government funding for education. A trend toward increased enrolment in private schools is also expected to continue.
However, government funding is also an important factor for the Private Schools industry. The risk score for this industry is forecast to increase in 2008-09, but remain within the same overall LOW risk band. This would be the third consecutive year in which this risk rating was applied. Somewhat offsetting the increased risk that comes from public funding trends is a forecast increase in overall revenue to private schools, from expected 3.3% growth in 2007-08 to 3.8% in 2008-09.
Below is an outline of the historical and forecast risk score for the above mentioned industries. These can be compared to the overall risk in the Australian economy.
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Industry Name
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2004
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2005
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2006
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2007
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2008
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2009
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Government Schools
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5.80
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4.53
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4.09
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4.88
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4.65
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4.95
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Private Schools
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3.68
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3.60
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4.63
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4.09
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3.65
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3.96
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Australian Economy
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4.76
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4.75
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4.79
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4.60
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4.74
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4.79
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Industry reports relating to this article are:
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